When Kumi Šubic, a ground flight attendant at Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport in Slovenia, learned she was being furloughed on March 16 after working 32 years at the airport, she started to grow concerned.  

​

“I do worry what will happen with my job and how many people will they need or who will be let go,” Šubic said. “I am 53 years old, and it is hard to get a job at this age.”

​

Šubic’s job is just one of many potentially at risk. Worldwide, 25 million airline-related jobs could disappear amid the COVID-19 crisis, according to IATA, an international trade association that represents over 290 airlines.

​

“Without a doubt this is the biggest crisis that the industry has ever faced,” said Alexandre de Juniac, director general and CEO of IATA, in a press release dated April 7.

​

Global passenger data for February reveals a 14.1% drop in demand compared to the same time last year, the steepest decline in traffic since 9/11, according to IATA.

​

Flights are seeing close to 96% fewer passengers, according to a source familiar with the industry. That figure aligns with a statement from Delta Airlines CEO, Ed Bastian, in a memo released to Delta employees on April 14, announcing the airline was carrying just 5% of the people it carried a year ago.

​

In the United States, a series of travel bans issued by the Trump administration in response to COVID-19 could explain the declining demand. President Trump released multiple orders to ban entry of all non-citizens from Canada, China and the Schengen area, which include many European Union countries. 

​

In response to these bans, many major airlines have drastically reduced their scheduled number of flights. United Airlines’ April schedule has been reduced by more than 60%, according to Forbes magazine.

​

Meanwhile, American Airlines reduced its international flights until May 6 by 75%.  Globally, the number of flights from April 2019 to April 2020 are down 59.2% and as of April 10, there were a reported 2,138 of travel-related COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to a Statistica analysis. 

​

Another explanation for decreased demand could be fear, said Brian Lopez, a student pilot at Elizabeth City State University.

“When this all settles down, it’s going to be hard for the airlines to regain those customers,” Lopez said. “People are not going to feel comfortable flying again.”

​

Regardless, as flights continue to attract fewer and fewer passengers, the economic toll is only expected to mount, leaving airlines to count some of their largest losses in history.

​

Over 40% of U.S. based flights impacted by the European travel bans, which include Delta and United Airlines, already estimate billions in lost revenue for 2020, according to the World Economic Forum.

​

More specifically, projections made in accordance with a strict three-month travel ban scenario reveal that airlines could stand to face a net loss of over $39 billion by June 30. Projections for the year predict a $252 billion drop in revenue, according to IATA.

​

The global and travel tourism market that relies heavily on the success of airlines is predicted to see a loss of 75.2 million jobs worldwide, according to Time magazine. 

​

But the revenue loss is expected to hurt more than just airline workers. 

​

The national GDP is expected to plummet 30.1% in the April-June quarter, with unemployment rising to an average of 12.8% over the period, higher than at any point in the Great Recession, according to Morgan Stanley economists. 

​

Such enormous losses have airlines scrambling for help.

​

More than 230 airlines in the United States have filed applications for a federal aid bailout since the passing of the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or CARES Act, nearly three weeks ago, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. The bill reserves $25 billion in loans and another $25 billion in grants for passenger airlines.

​

U.S. Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said the country’s six largest airlines should expect to get 70% of their aid in cash, with the remaining 30% coming as loans at 1% interest, according to reporting from the Associated Press. 

​

In exchange, the U.S. Treasury Department is asking airlines for warrants, or securities, which can be converted to airline stock, according to sources which spoke anonymously with the Associated Press. 

​

However, according to another source familiar with the industry, the federal government has also presented airline companies with a dilemma — accept the aid to remain solvent but keep employees on the payroll or cut jobs to reduce costs while risking the chance of bankruptcy.

​

Additionally, if airlines wish to receive aid from the COVID-19 bailout package, they would be required to continue flying to every operational domestic destination they already serve, no matter how many passengers are on each flight. 

​

Negotiations are still ongoing, according to a source familiar with the industry, with additional reporting from the Associated Press also corroborating the existence of such discussions.

​

Yet, Lopez said he is unsure about these conditions.

​

“Ultimately, the bailout will include loans that the airlines will have to pay back, and I don’t see that ending up well,” Lopez said. “Airlines already took a big hit because of this virus.” 

​

Cameron Parchment, a student pilot at Elizabeth City State University, said he has strong feelings as well. 

​

“The government bailout of the airline industry is saddening, as so many people rely on air transportation,” Parchment said. “Pilots are definitely hurting, because flying is more than a job, it’s a hobby as well.” 

​

In the effort to reduce the extent of its cash bleed, airline companies have also asked for solidarity from governments and industry stakeholders throughout the world. 

​

In Europe, the 41 member states of Eurocontrol, the continent’s primary air traffic control operation, have agreed to delay the 1.1 billion euro payment until November and through 2021. 

​

Rafael Schvartzman, IATA’s regional vice president for Europe, expressed admiration for the decision, but industry employees and leaders view it only as a temporary solution. 

​

“Throwing airlines lifelines like this at this critical stage will help people far beyond those directly employed in air transport,” de Juniac said at a media briefing on April 7. “But we are concerned that relief is not sufficiently available.” 

​

Ultimately, the recovery of the airlines will rely on how soon the world can reopen its borders and get passengers to fill seats, a solution that will require careful planning. 

​

“We have never shuttered the industry on this scale before,” de Juniac said in a press release dated April 7. “Consequently, we have no experience in starting it up. It will be complicated.”

​

In effort to begin planning, IATA will begin hosting virtual “summits” with governments and stakeholders starting before the end of April. 

​

“Airlines will still connect the world,” de Juniac said in a press release. “We must get on with this work quickly.”

​

Such sentiment seems to be shared by student pilots like Lopez and Parchment who represent the future of the aviation industry. 

​

“I know with everything that’s going on, being a pilot for an airline isn’t the best career at the moment,” Lopez said. “But people are still going to need to go places, and I’m gonna be there to help.”

​

​

​

​